In a surprise development President Obama announced Nov. 21 that he will be traveling to India in January to be the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day January 26. This is clearly a diplomatic coup of sorts for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and an all-round win-win development for bilateral relations.
Being the chief guest at the 65th anniversary of the day when India adopted its democratic and secular Constitution, is infused with immense symbolism. American experts universally described it as a “huge deal.” Speculation is rife that Obama’s decision to accept India’s invitation was made during a one-on-one between the two leaders on the sidelines of the G-20 meetings in Brisbane, Australia, barely a week before the White House made its announcement. That may account for why both New Delhi and Washington were apparently caught by surprise.
“This did not happen during Modi’s visit to Washington, D.C. in September,” asserted Ashley Tellis, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues. “It didn’t happen in September. I would have heard rumors if it had.” asserted Ambassador Teresita Schaffer, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East and South Asia with a 30-year career in the U.S. Foreign Service, including as Ambassador to Sri Lanka.
“It’s a post-Modi visit decision,” Tellis maintained. When Modi came to Washington, he was still uncertain about the reception he would receive especially in the backdrop of soured relations caused by the visa ban placed on the Indian leader by the State Department in 2005. “But he left the country with the feeling that the United States truly treated him as a world leader. And he came back with this,” Tellis asserted, calling it a “very powerful” symbol that went way beyond any Joint Statement or trade deals signed between the two countries.
Schaffer traces the immediate impetus for the President’s decision to go to India at the doors of the U.S. and India resolving the World Trade Organization dispute over the Trade Facilitation Agreement announced during the two leaders’ visit to Myanmar for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit two weeks ago. “I don’t think Modi or his government appreciated what a big deal that was for the U.S.,” she said.
Also, while there is huge potential for the U.S. and India to grow their relations, it is a high maintenance relationship requiring input from the top, Schaffer concludes. She also saw as significant that no previous U.S. president had made two visits to India during their terms in office aside from being the first U.S. president to attend the Republic Day celebrations and parade as a Chief Guest.
In a relationship that has been flagging for the last few years, some see this as Obama’s effort to breathe new life into it in the waning days of his presidency and to champion a rare bipartisan cause of strengthening the strategic relationship with the biggest democracy.
The Republic Day visit is not going to be about specific issues or substance. And consequently, some experts contend it will not be a huge delegation accompanying the President as is the case during working visits. When heads of state come as chief guests to Republic Day celebrations, it is mainly to symbolically express friendship and solidarity through their presence at the event. But Schaffer differs.
Every presidential visit a large delegation. “When an American President travels, it’s a huge entourage,” she said and everyone who has anything to do with India will want to be on it, she indicated. Patel said the OFBJP would not be soliciting an invitation from the White House but rather would respond if invited.
Modi supporters in the United States as well as other Indian-Americans see the 2nd Obama visit as yet another sign of the Indian leader’s maturity as a diplomat. It also conveys that Washington is an extremely important and valued ally of New Delhi despite the occasional prickliness. It is also a testament to the personal rapport he appears to have developed with President Obama.
“This is another ‘Modi Moment,’ a historical moment, where he has showed his metal to countries around the world and they are rushing to India,” said Chandrakant Patel, president of the Overseas Friends of Bharatiya Janata Party. “Also, the United States is feeling that India as opposed to China is a democracy, with a strong anti-terrorism stance, a growing economy which will be taking the leadership very soon,” Patel added.
“This visit will mark the first time a U.S. president will have the honor of attending Republic Day, which commemorates the adoption of India’s constitution,” The White House said in its announcement, adding, “The President will meet with the Prime Minister and Indian officials to strengthen and expand the U.S.-India strategic partnership.”
“It’s very big news,” said Shekar Narasimhan, a Democratic Party activist. “It is not the result of anything other than a very good visit of the Prime Minister to this country. And it show s how important it is to President Obama and his strong intention to make something good happen within the next two years,” Narasimhan added.
“This Republic Day we hope to have a friend over … invited President Obama to be the 1st US President to grace the occasion as Chief Guest,” Modi tweeted.