Battle lines have been drawn at the box office this weekend, where two of the year’s biggest Bollywood releases will premiere in what industry watchers say is an avoidable clash which could end up hurting both films.
Big films releasing on the same day are not unusual, but they are usually reserved for the lucrative festive period of Diwali or the Christmas holiday week. Rohit Shetty’s romantic comedy “Dilwale” and Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s epic “Bajirao Mastani” are both releasing on Dec. 18, and they could potentially lose a combined 100 million rupees in first-day ticket sales, said Shailesh Kapoor, whose company Ormax tracks Bollywood releases.
“If the two movies had come out on two different weekends, they would have made a combined first-day business of around 400-450 million rupees, but now that figure is likely to be around 300-350 million rupees. That difference will percolate down to day two and three,” said Kapoor.
Bollywood has had a dry run for the past two months. The only big films in November were Salman Khan’s “Prem Ratan Dhan Payo” and Ranbir Kapoor’s “Tamasha”, while December is yet to see any big release, until now.
“Businesswise, it doesn’t make sense,” distributor Anil Thadani told Reuters.
“It would have made more sense to space the two releases out, because now audiences and revenues will be divided. On the other hand, both the movies are looking interesting, so if the content holds good, then they have a clear window of three weeks which they can exploit,” he added.
Of the two movies, trade experts give “Dilwale” the slight edge because of the bigger star cast which includes Shah Rukh Khan, Kajol and Varun Dhawan, who enjoys a significant fan following among the younger demographic. “Bajirao Mastani”, on the other hand, has arresting visuals and grand scale, but is limited by its subject – the love story of Maratha warrior Bajirao Peshwa and his second wife Mastani – which may not appeal to a mass audience.
Eros International, which is producing “Bajirao Mastani”, was the first to announce the film’s release date. Shah Rukh Khan’s Red Chillies Entertainment later said it would also premiere “Dilwale” on the same day.
“I think Shah Rukh got misled by his people. He is a victim of his coterie. They told him when he comes, everyone will back off, but that didn’t happen,” trade expert Amod Mehra said.
With neither willing to change dates, both parties are using every trick in the book to make sure they have the upper hand. Eros has agreements with most single-screen owners to play only “Bajirao Mastani” for the first two weeks, a decision that could end up hurting these theatres.
“Dilwale” had a huge publicity blitzkrieg, with the cast jet-setting to cities like London and Dubai, and making appearances on reality TV shows. “Bajirao Mastani”, on the other hand, had a relatively low-key publicity run.
“What matters is how the content holds. If word of mouth is good, both movies have a chance to recover over the next two weekends, which are both holiday weekends,” Thadani said.
The box office clash could not come at worse time for Bollywood, which experienced a lean year and needed these two films to do well theatrically. The latter half of 2015 has seen big ticket films like “Shaandar” and “Prem Ratan Dhan Payo” do lukewarm business, and almost all of November and half of December have gone by without a significant release.
But that also meant that some small films which might have otherwise slipped under the radar have done unexpectedly well at the box office. Thadani distributed “Hate Story 3”, a small-budget thriller that recovered its cost in the first weekend and then went on to make a huge profit of 450 million rupees in domestic ticket sales.
“It’s about knowing when to release and it’s about knowing what content works. If you know that, then your film will do good business,” he said.
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