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The 2014 general election was termed a “wave election”, a political phenomenon in which a particular party is able to mobilise voters on important issues and win a substantial number of seats. The Narendra Modi-led BJP rode the wave and won on a promise to replicate the Gujarat model of good governance and development for the entire country.
Wave elections are generally negative in nature as it is usually a vote against the incumbent ruling party, which could be due to dissatisfaction with governance and service delivery or issues which are against the voter’s personal interests. The alleged failure of the UPA government in controlling inflation, rising unemployment, scams, policy paralysis and overall poor governance created a wave in favour of the BJP in 2014. However, the run-up to the election added a new dimension to the concept. The wave, according to pollsters and analysts, was in favour of Narendra Modi – an individual and not a political party. Thus it becomes imperative in this context to find out whether the ‘Modi wave’ was a political reality or a myth propagated by vested interests.
A review of the state assembly elections held after Modi was anointed the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate and his campaigning in those states will be a good indicator to gauge whether the wave was only in his favour or for the BJP. In Karnataka, election campaigning could not generate pro-Modi sentiments and resulted in a drubbing of the BJP by the Congress. The brilliant victories of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have been attributed to the ‘Modi wave’, but this takes credit away from Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s record of good governance in Madhya Pradesh and the capitalization of an anti-incumbency wave by Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan.
Even in the 2015 Delhi assembly election, Modi could not prevent an unprecedented victory for the Aam Aadmi Party. The verdict marked a tectonic shift in Indian democracy, ushering in an era of ‘real politics’ and also took the wind out of the ‘Modi wave’. The Delhi election goes much beyond the numbers; it provides a cautionary tale for the BJP, which should start working on the tall promises it made during the 2014 parliamentary election.
The ongoing Bihar assembly election has once again turned into a Modi versus others (Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav). The BJP-led NDA alliance is banking on Modi’s star power, new political alliances, caste calculations, and the promise of FDIs to lure voters. But the party’s promise of development and rallies by Modi in the first two phases of the election did not cut much ice with the electorate. Instead of important issues, the election has been reduced to low-grade demagogy with both sides resorting to personal attacks.
It is important to understand the mood of the electorate and why the verdict seems to be tilting towards the Nitish-Lalu alliance. The NDA seems to be on a sticky wicket due to the following reasons:A supporter of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) waves the party flag during an election campaign rally addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi (not pictured) in Banka, in Bihar October 2, 2015.
1) The BJP’s negative campaign seems to be boomeranged, creating a sympathy wave for the Nitish-Lalu alliance.
2) The BJP’s failure in implementing promises it made at the centre, like getting back black money from foreign countries, controlling price rise and addressing the agrarian crisis.
3) The election has been turned into an ‘outsiders’ versus ‘locals’ contest, which is working against the NDA alliance.
4) Finally, rising intolerance and the recent spate of communal incidents across the country involving saffron groups and the stone-age diktats issued by BJP ministers have not gone down well with the people of the country. These incidents will certainly have a backlash in the Bihar election.
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