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Excitement over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to this country starting Sept. 26-30, is high not just among his avid supporters here but among Indian-Americans in general. And it promises to be a raucous visit, as befits a democracy, with supporters and opponents staging protests and marches both in New York and Washington, D.C. There is a concerted effort all round, including in the Obama administration, to tamp down expectations about results even as it promises to deepen and expand security, defense, and development initiatives.
As this newspaper went to press, news reports indicated at least 6 MoUs would be signed and some significant defense and technology deals were in the offing. Modi in a message released before his departure for the U.S. said he looked forward to his first meeting with President Obama.“His life`s journey is a remarkable testimony to the rights and opportunities that democracies provide, and an inspiration for people around the world.”
At the same time, a lawsuit was filed in a U.S. Federal Court in Manhattan alleging Modi had violated human rights, putting the U.S. administration on the back foot once again. Senior administration officials were adamant they would not let the court action distract from the visit. They also said Modi had complete diplomatic immunity and under inviolability laws, he could not even be served with court papers during his stay here.
American business is still smarting from the nuclear liability law passed by Indian Parliament which hijacked years of effort to put the 2005 civil nuclear agreement in place, just one of several complaints. Modi tried to allay those fears with his Op Ed in the Wall Street Journal published the day he set foot on U.S. soil Sept. 26 entitled “An Invitation to ‘Make in India’” and promised to smooth the path for foreign and domestic entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is reading the tea leaves to figure out what Modi really wants and can deliver; and analysts are split between those who believe nothing substantial will be announced and those who contend just getting back on the rails is a substantive achievement.
The latest flyer from the Indian embassy touts the Modi slogan “Make in India” and points to numerous policy decisions smoothing the path for investors and lauding achievements plus projecting a rosy business climate. The Indian Space Research Organization’s victory sending the Mangalyaan satellite into the Mars orbit Sept. 23, just days before Modi alights a plane to New York, is a feather in the cap that the Prime Minister can wear to show India can achieve great heights.
The U.S. administration has to understand that it is dealing with a different India with Modi at its helm. He represents a whole different population than the elites of previous administrations in New Delhi; he moves on a different clock, has concrete objectives and is almost single-minded about going after them. It is a misconception say analysts that somehow one has to look behind what Modi says to figure out what he wants. He has laid it out pretty clearly. One analyst speaking on background, said frantic organizing was going on just days before Modi’s arrival. “It’s like a madhouse because the relations were not maintained,” said the source who is privy to behind-the-scenes planning.
American Business
The business world has a better understanding of Modi than policymakers in the United States.
Rick Rossow, former director of operations at the U.S.-India Business Council (USIBC), and currently the Wadhwani Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says while this visit may not move mountains on the nuclear or defense fronts, “If we develop just a framework to do so, then that is not an insubstantial achievement.” Rossow does not see the American administration having all that much to bring to the table, unlike Japan which has pledged to invest billions in India. So Modi’s interaction with the private sector is critical, obvious from his first meeting with the USIBC in New York. The administration meanwhile is shy of describing the visit as “transactional” but that’s exactly what it is. Modi is a ‘transactional kind of guy,’ according to business leaders.
“If a CEO says to Modi, ‘I’m willing to put X million if you can clear this kind of clause,’ he is much more interested and capable of acting on those,” Rossow contends. There are however several problem areas bedeviling relations such as patent decisions, forced localization, retail sector investment, and last but not least, India dropping the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA).
For American businesses disconcerted by things like nuclear liability law and regulatory changes, this was yet another confirmation India could not be depended on. News reports, however, say the two governments are negotiating feverishly behind the scenes to announce a compromise on TFA when during the summit.
U.S. business is still hanging its hat on Modi. Where former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram took several years to initiate changes in civil aviation, telecommunications, and the insurance industry after his first budget speech, they say, Modi’s man Arun Jaitley set things in motion within a few months in areas like defense, railways, construction, and insurance.
For an America that looks through the lens of foreign direct investment, there is more commitment under Modi. Accusations that the Modi government is like a “Black Box” are unfounded, they say. Every speech the Prime Minister delivers is full of his objectives, all stated plainly, and all leading to one place – he wants to build things. Washington may be “overthinking” the man instead of seeing what he clearly wants.
“From everything I hear there is a lot of anticipation and excitement among U.S. Congressmen and others (about Modi’s visit). They are gung-ho about changes in India – ending corruption, attracting investment. There’s a general feeling that Modi wants to lay out the welcome mat,” says Maryland businessman Sudhakar Shenoy. He was a member of the first high-level trade delegation that went to India with then Commerce Secretary Ron Brown under the Clinton administration. He has followed the ebbs and flows since those euphoric days. “Without a doubt I think this man (Modi) is on the right track,” Shenoy says, but adds that there may not be any major announcement like the nuclear deal. “There’s nothing that can be solved in one trip and the problems cannot be solved overnight. But Modi is the kind of guy who will say he is willing to look at things and if it is a win-win situation, he will consider it,” Shenoy said.
“I’m bullish,” says Rossow. “I think we’ll be back in 3 years. The last government was supposed to be anti-reform and yet it got things done and it was still pretty good,” he said.
A Different India
It’s been a mad scramble behind the scenes in Washington as it prepares for the Modi visit, according to those in the know. Besides the fact that the Obama administration has so many irons in the fire with multiple crises around the world, bilateral relations with India were derailed with a series of diplomatic and policy snafus, and need to be put back on track. Finding that track has been a task that current U.S. policymakers need to rethink, and quick.
“The United States just has to understand that it’s dealing with a different India. It has to start over,” says Barbara Crossette who reported extensively on India for the New York Times. She is currently working on a paper on India for the Foreign Policy Association. The India under Modi is one that wants to be rid of Nehruvian approaches and policies. It is even different from Bharatiya Janata Party’s previous government of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. “Modi symbolizes and represents a new India. He represents everything the Congress Party was not for, the non-elite. So Americans have to re-calibrate how to deal with him. They have to look at India through another lens,” she says.
Crossette also noted the pervasive sense of disappointment among American policymakers and the administration with India’s nuclear liability law and does not expect Modi will be able to offer any change on that front during the visit. This despite energy being a key sector American business is keen to enter. “A lot of people, even those against the nuclear agreement, feel the U.S. went out on a limb for India,” she said, including changing the parameters for the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
According to some sources, the Obama administration believes it can only hope to “manage” the relationship and look for win-win situations. Things did not go that well during the visit of Secretary of State John Kerry to India last month apparently, and so the question is going to be Modi’s personal relationship with President Obama.
“He means to establish personal links because he and the BJP have no personal contacts and you need that ability to pick up the phone,” says Walter Andersen, former State Department official now heading the South Asian Studies Department at the Johns Hopkins Center for Strategic and International Studies. The “trust deficit” remains here within the administration and business. “Modi’s bringing a big delegation and a lot of businessmen with him,” he said, which might help. Plus, Obama will seek India’s input in his new and evolving Middle East policy to counter the so-called Islamic State. Besides, India could do with more intelligence and defense cooperation to deal with any future fallout from the recent al Qaeda announcement it had established a South Asia wing.
Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who worked closely with the Bush administration on the civil nuclear cooperation deal, says both sides are making a strong effort to put the relationship back on the rails. They recognize there’s been a drift. Now Washington has to adopt a three-pronged policy that looks for ways to support Modi’s transformation policies; find convergence on issues of regional security from Afghanistan to East Asia; and look for ways to cooperate on global issues of trade, climate change, and of course terrorism. Especially, says Tellis, the two countries have to find out the scope of cooperation in areas they don’t see eye to eye.
“So the visit will see a lot of activities and deliverables on these fronts,” Tellis contends. “It will be a good visit.” Officials are continuing hectic negotiations he says and bilateral agreements go down to the wire. “We will be lucky if we can close on things till the final bell,” he says recounting his experience during the negotiations on the nuclear deal.
Tellis also differs on the nuclear liability law being an insurmountable long term problem. “They can actually deal with it right away,” he claims. “Remember, it was not the Congress Party that had a problem. It was the BJP,” and especially (current foreign minister) Sushma Swaraj who put in an additional clause which finally “messed up” the balance the governments were trying to achieve.
“The question is not whether Modi has the clout to force (a change in the nuclear liability law), but whether he is committed enough to the nuclear deal to bring together a consensus,” Tellis contends. It is not among Modi’s priorities and while the Indian leader may see it as essential, he sees nuclear energy as something that will take a long time to fructify. Modi has to be sensitized by his own people about how important the problem is to the U.S., Tellis says.
“I have limited expectations of the Modi visit,” Sumit Ganguly of Indiana University, Bloomington, Ind., said. “The President is completely preoccupied with other crises; the U.S. does not have an ambassador in New Delhi and it is not clear if the State (Department) folks have much control over the agenda.” Professor Philip Oldenburg of Columbia University echoed Ganguly’s views. “Nothing in terms of substance is going to happen. The scenario is one of ‘Let’s get back to square zero. Let bygones be bygones’.” The irony of the relationship however, was that it was neither too good nor too bad. It’s like a replay of former Ambassador Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s description of “mutual benign neglect,” Oldenburg said. “And that’s not a bad thing. For the U.S., India is not a problem, nor a benefit. You don’t have to worry about it.”
New Ambassador
With a new U.S. Ambassador to India nominated just days before Modi’s arrival, Washington hopes to display its serious interest in the Modi visit. For months the spot has been filled by an interim Charge D’affaire. Now it is up to the U.S. Senate to schedule a confirmation hearing for veteran Beltway insider even if an experienced foreign policy buff, Richard Rahul Verma to fill that gap.
Lawmakers are pleased with Verma’s nomination and enthused by the upcoming Modi visit despite not scheduling a Joint Session address by him. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, the only Hindu in the U.S. Congress, said she is disappointed about that. She is among the legislators who will be at the Sept. 28 Madison Square Garden community reception for Modi.
“While I am disappointed that the U.S. Congress will not be in session during this specific visit to allow for an opportunity for him (Modi) to address a joint session, I look forward to meeting and hearing from him on this much-anticipated visit in other settings,” she told News India Times in an email response. Gabbard’s spokesperson said the Congresswoman would also be part of a select group that will meet Modi separately while he is in New York. She will also attend the meeting Modi is scheduled to have Sept. 30 with Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Kerry in Washington, D.C.
“The fact that the United States is rolling out the red carpet demonstrates the importance the White House is placing on this visit,” Rep. Joe Crowley, long time member and co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans, told News India Times. “My understanding is that there will be a broad range of discussions, from trade and commerce to strengthening security — issues that are key to growing the U.S.-India relationship. I expect this visit will lay the groundwork for cooperation going forward.”
Supporters and Detractors
For supporters of Modi, this visit is the highlight and a balm over wounds long nursed over the visa ban placed by the State Department on the Indian leader when he was Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2005 following the 2002 communal riots in that state.
Washington, D.C.-based businessman Shekhar Tiwari, who has known Modi for many years and has traveled to India to campaign for him, is all praise for the leader. “After the Vajpayee government fell (in 2004), he (Modi) was the one who lifted the morale and patriotism of Indians in America. In his first year (as Chief Minister of Gujarat) he gave awards to NRIs (non-resident Indians). By this action he recognized their hard work,” Tiwari told News India Times. Modi makes people feel good about themselves, “You need that to go and fight for your homeland.” And on this trip he will do the same. “He will make us feel that we are really important for Mother India.”
He also expects the Prime Minister to focus on business issues, which he said fell by the wayside during former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s tenure even though it was he who authored the liberalization policy for India in 1991. “Narendrabhai says to American business that India is open for business,” Tiwari said. Plus, Modi is going to take the high road on the visa ban history, Tiwari says. “The message he’s going to give to the U.S. government is – ‘Look, I’m not going to hold it against you. I know what you did.”
Supporters see a lot of unrealized potential in the bilateral relationship. “This is just a first visit. There’s a lot of expectation and hope for many Americans, both Indian-Americans and Indians,” said Suhag Shukla, co-founder and executive director of the advocacy organization Hindu American Foundation. “There’s so much potential, we just need decisive leadership on both sides,” she added. She hopes it will be the first of many visits Modi will make here. “This one visit won’t meet all the challenges.”
For detractors of Modi, it is a different story altogether. “What must be recognized is that the world is watching,” said Biju Mathew, member of the newly-formed Ghadar Alliance, who has been active in the Coalition Against Genocide, an organization that campaigned for the visa ban against Modi. “A particular section (of Indian-Americans) feels the Messiah has arrived. But the rest of the world is watching and we need to understand that as a community and nation, the verdict is still out (on Modi) however much you may try to keep it in the background.”